Bitcoin Price at New Highs – Are retail traders about to get blindsided?

🟦 Overview

• 📈 Bias: Neutral

• 🎯 Signal: Watch – building sell bias

• 🧭 Why: Price action looking corrective indicating limited upside

• ⏳ Timing Zone: Waiting for close below $98,500 or above $123,000

🟩 Bitcoin Insight

Bitcoin prices have been rallying since November 2022 and seemed to have completed the bull run cycle in November 2024. Its price action has been somewhat choppy ranging between $100k and $75k. The expectation was for further retracement to take place before the uptrend resumed. However, we’ve seen price rally to above $120k. Do we enter now with this new high with the fear of missing out in further gains? Caution is advised as this is looking likely to be a fake breakout. I am anticipating a reversal; although not confirmed, this is why I am suspicious and waiting for further price action.

🟧 Chart Analysis

• The bull run cycle completed in November 2024 at $100k which is now acting as resistance. The uptrend line which was once support is now acting as resistance.

• There is a divergence on the RSI indicator which implies waning momentum as new highs is being created, which is usually a leading sign of reversal.

• Volume is declining as price is rising. Another divergence that’s indicating a reversal.

• Price action contains lots of small 3 wave patterns (corrective characteristics) since November 2024. These can move with the trend which tricks traders to thinking it’s an impulsive move.

Bitcoin - Weekly Chart

🟥 Action Plan

• ⛔ No buy set up in place

• 💡 Wait for further price action to determine when buyers are genuinely in to drive prices up

🧠 Final Word

My plan is to sit out for now and not rush in with the fear of mission out. The price action and momentum doesn’t look strong. However, if price does close above $123k I have to assume my analysis is incorrect and will consider other options and review for potential buy entries. But until then, probably best to wait. There will always be opportunities in the markets.