Brent looks close to completing wave 3 of an impulse. I expect a wave 4 pullback before a potential move to $130, with invalidation at $96.60.

Macro Regime: Risk-On, but Fragile The Big Picture US stocks set records last week. The S&P 500 closed at 7,811 and the Dow at 51,655. Underneath that, things were weaker. The Russell 2000 was the only major US index to fall, down 0.91%. Spreads on the riskiest corporate debt (CCC-rated) widened to 12.0%, the highest since November 2022. Investor sentiment has also turned more bullish, so markets are no longer climbing against scepticism. The Fed is still in a hiking cycle at

Published: 7th October 2026 The Situation With Copper Copper looks set to fall. The supply shortage that drove prices up is easing, demand from China is weak, and the chart suggests the rally is running out of steam. Waiting for confirmation before entering. Why Copper Could Fall 1. The supply squeeze is fading. For months, physical copper was scarce, which pushed prices up. That scarcity is now easing fast. A key market signal (the gap between today’s price and the three-mon

Rating: Constructive, Medium Conviction | Bias: Selective · Watching for the Cracks to Widen The Big Picture Gold is the headline asset this week, rallying sharply on news of $40 trillion in US debt. That headline is not a single-week story, it is the latest and loudest expression of a structural theme that has been building for some time: diminishing confidence in the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency and growing questions about the sustainability of US sovereign

Macro Regime: Dollar-Supportive | Bias: Selective — Carry and Yield Themes in Focus The Big Picture Following the latest FOMC statement, markets are now pricing rates as likely to remain on hold at current levels, with only a small probability assigned to a further hike. That outcome is broadly dollar-supportive, and the technical and fundamental picture across several pairs this week is aligning in the same direction. Crude oil prices have fallen meaningfully, now trading ar

Macro Regime: Cautious | Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Confirmation The Big Picture Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report triggered a sell-off in US equities. Strong employment data, set against a backdrop of rising inflation, increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policy further, a combination that markets are currently pricing as negative for risk assets. The focus this week falls squarely on the Nasdaq. The AI narrative remains the domina

Macro Regime: Mixed | Bias: Regionally Selective The Big Picture Equity markets are telling a divided story this week. The picture is not uniformly risk-on or risk-off. It is regional, sector-driven, and increasingly sensitive to the macro data calendar ahead. US and Japanese equities continue to trend higher, supported by sustained momentum and persistent optimism around AI and semiconductor growth. That theme has shown resilience and continues to attract capital. However, t

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Bullish · Technically Led The Big Picture Positive news on the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has shifted the tone meaningfully this week. Equity markets gapped higher over the weekend reflecting that relief, and the broader cross-asset picture is confirming the move. The VIX has declined further and is holding below 20. That is the clearest real-time read on market fear, and right now it is saying risk appetite is in pl

Macro Regime: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Selective The Big Picture The risk-on regime that has characterised the past several weeks remains intact on the surface — US equities are holding their uptrend, the VIX continues to drift lower, and credit spreads remain tight. The broad tape has not broken. But a material shift in the macro backdrop warrants a more cautious read of the current environment. The latest CPI print has come in higher than expected, and the implications

Macro Regime: Risk-On The Big Picture Evidence for a risk-on sentiment has developed. VIX futures have been in decline over the last four to five weeks, whilst US equities and emerging markets have been trending up. This indicates genuine risk appetite, although it must be said that this is predominantly being driven by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq leading the broader market by a meaningful margin. The commodity complex tells the same story. Silver, copper and platinum are al

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Highly Selective The Big Picture Ceasefire talks with Iran have broken down, and markets have opened the week accordingly. The VIX gapped higher over the weekend — a straightforward read that uncertainty has returned in force. Energy prices remain the central concern, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and the threat of supply disruption very much alive. Until there is some clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader pictur

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Selective Longs Only The Big Picture The ceasefire talks with Iran have collapsed, and markets gapped into the week reflecting that reality. The VIX surged over the weekend — a clean signal that uncertainty is back in control. Energy prices remain the focal point, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and supply disruption risk firmly on the table. Until there is clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader market environment sta

Crude oil remains in a choppy but clear downtrend, with EMA, MACD, and ADX all confirming bearish momentum toward $55–$50, unless price breaks above $66.50.

Executive Summary Gold remains a sought-after safe haven amid rising inflation, currency devaluation, and economic uncertainty. The iShares Physical Gold ETC (SGLN) provides retail investors with an accessible way to hedge against these risks by tracking physical gold. While long-term trends are bullish and gold's value as a store of wealth is reinforced, technical charts suggest a short-term pause or correction; investors may benefit from patience and waiting for clear techn

Weekly Chart On the weekly timeframe SIL (from a broader perspective) is looking corrective within a contracting range; from 2016 price...