Regime: Risk-off, but not acute Correction or Bear Market? Markets are either in a correction or at the start of a bear market. I lean towards a correction. Liquidity is healthy. M2 money supply is up 5.71% on the year. Credit is still flowing. Bank lending is rising, although standards are tighter. No major structural cracks. Without a liquidity squeeze or a lending freeze, I don't see the conditions for a sustained bear market yet. What could change my view: credit spreads

Regime: Mixed, in transition Key Market Moves US tech sold off. The Nasdaq fell over 5% in October. Alphabet dropped 12% in one day and Intel 28.6%. Markets are questioning whether AI spending will pay off. This is not full risk-off yet. The VIX was flat at 19.42 and credit spreads tightened to 326bp. Money is moving into energy and defensive stocks rather than leaving the market. Sterling is strong. The BoE is expected to raise rates on 5th November while the ECB held at 2.5

Has the Euro Stoxx 50 topped? Wave 5 looks complete, but the decline looks corrective. A close below 6,015 or above 6,380 decides it.

Published: 22nd October 2026 The Setup The Nasdaq 100 may have completed its rally. The Elliott Wave count shows five waves to the upside, which can mark the end of a trend. What the Daily Chart Shows Five waves complete. The advance from the April low has five clear waves, with wave 5 peaking in early October. Momentum divergence. Price made a higher high in October, but the ROC indicator made a lower high. Momentum is weakening as price rises, which often comes before a rev

Rating: Tightening Regime | Bias: Dollar Bullish Fundamentally, Correction Expected Technically The Big Picture Three central banks, three hikes, one driver. The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have all tightened, and energy prices sit behind all of it. This is now a synchronised tightening cycle rather than a series of isolated decisions, and it reframes how every asset on the watchlist needs to be read. Where it gets interesting is the gap between the fundamental pictu

Published: 21st May 2026 Background Last week’s market report identified the DAX as a potential short — the thesis being that rising oil prices, driven by Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, would weigh on European equities through higher energy costs. That hypothesis has not played out. Oil prices have declined, and European stocks have responded in the opposite direction, presenting a clear technical buy opportunity on the DAX. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed

Macro Regime: Risk-On The Big Picture Evidence for a risk-on sentiment has developed. VIX futures have been in decline over the last four to five weeks, whilst US equities and emerging markets have been trending up. This indicates genuine risk appetite, although it must be said that this is predominantly being driven by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq leading the broader market by a meaningful margin. The commodity complex tells the same story. Silver, copper and platinum are al