Crude Oil Forecast – Breakdown Continues: Are Lower Prices Ahead?

📦 Quick Overview

📉 Theme: Bearish continuation inside a trend channel

📊 Trend: Choppy but firmly downward

🧭 Signal: EMA + MACD + ADX alignment support further downside

🎯 Target Zones: $55 first, $50 if momentum accelerates

❌ Invalidation Level: $66.50

Crude Oil Futures - Daily Chart

Price Structure: A Breakdown in Slow Motion

Crude oil price has been in a slow, choppy decline ever since hitting the $130 high back in 2022. Attempts to recover — most notably between May and September 2023 — were short-lived, with price getting firmly rejected and resuming its downtrend.

Since then, price has been confined within a clearly defined descending trend channel, consistently making lower highs and lower lows.

Technical Indicators Confirm the Weakness

Despite the overlapping price action, several technical indicators confirm that the bearish structure remains intact:

• 🔻 Below EMA lines (50/100/200-day): Classic confirmation of bearish bias

• 📉 MACD: Deep negative readings on recent wave down, signalling strong downside momentum

• 📈 ADX: Rising ADX indicates increasing strength in the current downtrend

Target Zones to Watch

Should the current trend continue — and there's little to suggest otherwise — we could see Crude Oil reach the following key levels:

• $55 – Prior support zone in April and May 2025

• $50 – Bottom of the descending channel and major psychological level

• These levels align with technical channel lows and prior demand zones

❗ Invalidation Zone: $66.50

If price reverses and closes decisively above $66.50, this would violate the current trend structure and invalidate the bearish setup — likely indicating that the correction has completed or a new trend is forming.

Structure View: Not Impulsive, But Tradable

This move doesn't resemble a classic impulse — rather, it appears to be a corrective decline following the strong 2-year rally from 2020–2022. That makes the structure more complex, but it also creates short-term trading opportunities within the channel.

For now, short trades may offer $2–$5 profit windows, especially when aligned with:

• 🧠 Supply-side headlines (e.g. OPEC decisions)

• 🌍 Demand shocks or geopolitical catalysts

• 🧾 Inventory report shifts

Final Word

Crude Oil remains trapped in a bearish channel, with the technical case for further downside gaining strength. Momentum indicators, trend structure, and failed rallies all support this view — and traders should be watching $55 and $50 as potential downside targets.

Until a clean structural reversal takes place, the bias remains down.