Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Bullish · Technically Led The Big Picture Positive news on the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has shifted the tone meaningfully this week. Equity markets gapped higher over the weekend reflecting that relief, and the broader cross-asset picture is confirming the move. The VIX has declined further and is holding below 20. That is the clearest real-time read on market fear, and right now it is saying risk appetite is in pl

Published: 22nd May 2026 Background EUR/NOK was identified in last week’s market report as a structural short opportunity. Norwegian krone strength underpinned by energy exposure and Norges Bank hawkishness, set against euro weakness driven by Eurozone underperformance and oil price sensitivity. The technical picture has now confirmed the setup. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed five-wave impulse to the downside followed by a three-wave corrective pullback.

Macro Regime: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Selective The Big Picture The risk-on regime that has characterised the past several weeks remains intact on the surface — US equities are holding their uptrend, the VIX continues to drift lower, and credit spreads remain tight. The broad tape has not broken. But a material shift in the macro backdrop warrants a more cautious read of the current environment. The latest CPI print has come in higher than expected, and the implications

Macro Regime: Risk-On The Big Picture Evidence for a risk-on sentiment has developed. VIX futures have been in decline over the last four to five weeks, whilst US equities and emerging markets have been trending up. This indicates genuine risk appetite, although it must be said that this is predominantly being driven by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq leading the broader market by a meaningful margin. The commodity complex tells the same story. Silver, copper and platinum are al

Rating: Cautiously Risk-On | Bias: Trend and Momentum Led The Big Picture This week's technical picture tells a fairly clear story. The dollar and euro are both showing signs of weakness on the charts, whilst tech stocks continue to attract buying interest. The main setups in focus are two oil-linked currency pairs — EURNOK and USDCAD — where the trend and momentum structure look compelling. The Nasdaq 100 is also on the radar, though not yet offering a clean entry. One mac

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Highly Selective The Big Picture Ceasefire talks with Iran have broken down, and markets have opened the week accordingly. The VIX gapped higher over the weekend — a straightforward read that uncertainty has returned in force. Energy prices remain the central concern, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and the threat of supply disruption very much alive. Until there is some clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader pictur

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Selective Longs Only The Big Picture The ceasefire talks with Iran have collapsed, and markets gapped into the week reflecting that reality. The VIX surged over the weekend — a clean signal that uncertainty is back in control. Energy prices remain the focal point, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and supply disruption risk firmly on the table. Until there is clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader market environment sta

Crude oil remains in a choppy but clear downtrend, with EMA, MACD, and ADX all confirming bearish momentum toward $55–$50, unless price breaks above $66.50.