ETHUSD – Etherium Breakout Imminent or a Bull Trap?

Overview

Bias: Bullish, but cautious

Signal: Watch for confirmation of breakout from multi-year range

Risk Level: Medium — possible alternate count still in play

Target Zone: $7,500–$8,000 if true impulse trend resumes

Technical Analysis Picture

Ethereum has been trading within a broad corrective range since its all-time high in November 2021; a nearly three-year consolidation that may now be coming to an end.

From a technical standpoint, the setup looks increasingly bullish:

• ✅ ADX is above 25, signalling a trending environment

• ✅ Weekly volume is above its 13-week average

• ✅ Price is holding above both the 50-week EMA and 250-week EMA

• ✅ RSI shows no divergence at this stage

This combination suggests the potential for a significant breakout, especially given how long ETH has remained in consolidation.

ETHUSD - Weekly Chart

Elliott Wave Perspective

The blue box on the chart represents the likely Wave 4 correction of a larger 5-wave structure that began years ago. If this interpretation is correct, Ethereum may now be in the early stages of its final Wave 5, which could complete its first full impulsive cycle.

However, there’s one technical red flag to monitor:

• On a logarithmic scale, the current third wave is roughly equal in length to the first — which would typically violate the guidelines of a true impulse (where Wave 3 is usually the longest). This raises the possibility that the move may actually be a C wave within a ZigZag correction, suggesting the correction may not be complete and that price could still retest the $1,400 lows. However, on an arithmetic scale, Wave 3 extends to 1.618x Wave 1, which supports a valid impulsive interpretation meaning either count remains viable at this stage.

ETHUSD - Alternative scenario where price reverses back down to $1,400 level

What to Watch Next

If this move is truly Wave 3 of a new impulse:

• Expect acceleration in price

• Fibonacci extensions suggest a Wave 5 target between $7,500–$8,000

• A breakout above the consolidation range high with strong volume would confirm

If instead this is a ZigZag correction:

• Price may soon stall and reverse

• Watch for rejection candles and breakdown below support zones

Final Word

Ethereum’s chart is showing strong technical alignment for a breakout but not without caution. The Elliott Wave count offers two valid interpretations, and price structure over the coming weeks will likely reveal which path we’re on. The key is to be patient. The next breakout may be real, or it may just another trap in disguise.