Bitcoin – Still Bullish Long-Term, But Caution for Now

John Nwatu MSTA CFTe
Sep 2
2 min read

📦 Quick Overview

📈 Bias: Long-term Bullish, Short-term Cautious

🎯 Signal: No entry for now — watching key resistance levels

📉 Risk: Potential for 30–50% correction

🧭 Reassessment Zone: Break above $117K–$125K

Why I’m Reviewing Bitcoin Now

There’s a lot of speculation and hype around Bitcoin at the moment, and as a responsible trader, I feel it’s important to step back and evaluate what the objective technical picture is telling us.

This isn’t about projecting the next price level, it’s about understanding where we are within the larger structure and how to position accordingly.

🌊 Elliott Wave Structure: A Leading Diagonal?

Since around 2015, Bitcoin has exhibited a series of overlapping 5-wave moves rather than clean, impulsive waves. According to Elliott Wave theory, this type of structure often forms a Leading Diagonal, particularly as Wave 1 of a larger move.

If this count is valid, we may be completing Wave (1) of a multi-decade Primary Wave 3 which means the biggest gains are still ahead.

🚨 But that doesn't mean it's time to jump in.

⚠️ Short-Term Risk: Divergences & Overextension

RSI and MFI divergence on the weekly chart
Momentum slowing, despite rising prices
Volume not confirming the rally

📉 This puts Bitcoin at high risk of a short-term correction — not unusual historically, as BTC has regularly seen 70–80% declines in past cycles.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a drop back to $80K or even $50K before the trend resumes.

🔁 Zoomed-Out Perspective: Still Bullish Long-Term

On the logarithmic chart (above), the case for long-term bullishness remains intact.

We could now be completing Wave (1) of the Supercycle
A drop into the Fib 0.382–0.618 zone ($48K–$77K) would be healthy for Wave (2)
That sets the foundation for Wave (3) — the exponential leg
Bitcoin - Wave 1 Leading Diagonal Count