📊 Weekly Market Update & Outlook – Bitcoin [BTCUSD]
- John Nwatu MSTA CFTe
- Dec 16, 2025
- 5 min read
W/C 15th December 2025
Rating: Sell
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Short-Term
🖼️ Weekly Chart
There has been no material change to the higher-timeframe picture this week. Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a broad $81,000–$95,000 range, with price action remaining corrective rather than impulsive.
Weekly Chart
Price remains range-bound with no breakout or breakdown confirmation
Structure still favours a pause within a broader corrective phase
No evidence yet of a renewed bullish impulse
🖼️ Daily Chart
Daily Chart
Zooming in, price action looks increasingly corrective
The structure suggests risk of further downside, even if short-term bounces occur
Any near-term rally is currently viewed as a relief move, not trend resumption
⚠️ Trading Stance
I would be cautious buying at this stage
An uptrend has not yet been confirmed
Patience is warranted until price shows clearer directional intent
📍 Key Levels to Watch
Range Support: ~$81,000
Range Resistance: ~$95,000
Bearish Bias Invalidation:
Sustained move above $107,000, and more decisively
Break and hold above $117,000
Until those levels are reclaimed with structure and momentum, the bearish bias remains intact.
W/C 8th December 2025
Rating: Sell
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Short-Term
🖼️ Weekly Chart
Last week brought no significant movement in Bitcoin. Price action remained muted, offering no clear directional follow-through and no change to last week’s analysis or rating.
The broader structure remains intact, and while price may appear neutral in the short term, the downtrend remains the dominant scenario — unless proven otherwise by a clear rally above recent resistance levels.
🧭 Technical Overview
Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the 100-week EMA, but without bullish confirmation
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) remain weak, and trend strength still favours the downside
A break below $80,600 would confirm continuation toward the $75,000 support zone
A sustained move above $94,000 would begin to challenge the current bearish thesis
📍 Key Levels
Support: $80,600 · $75,000
Resistance: $94,000
Bearish invalidation: Close above $117,000 with momentum shift
For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode. With no meaningful bullish signal and key support still vulnerable, the default outlook remains bearish.
We'll continue to monitor for breakdown or reversal triggers — but patience is key in a structure like this.
📬 Stay tuned for next week’s update via Trends x Waves Weekly.
W/C 1st December 2025
Rating: Sell
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Short-Term
🖼️ Weekly Chart
No change to last week’s rating. Bitcoin remains under pressure, with bearish momentum intact and technical structure still pointing toward further downside.
Despite a brief attempt to rally, price failed to close above last week’s high, reinforcing the idea that any short-term strength is likely corrective in nature rather than a meaningful reversal.
🧭 Technical Overview
Price continues to hover around the 100-week EMA, which is acting as temporary support
If this level fails — particularly on a close below $80,600 — a decline toward the $75,000 zone becomes highly probable
Momentum indicators (RSI & MACD) remain strongly bearish, with no divergence or signs of bottoming yet
📍 Key Levels
Support: $80,600 → $75,000 → $49,500
Resistance: $117,000
Invalidation (short bias): Close above $117,000 with positive momentum shift
Until we see a clear reclaim of broken structure or a strong bullish divergence, the base case remains the same: Bitcoin is still in a short-term downtrend, with the risk of deeper retracement if current support levels break.
For now, the Sell rating and bearish short-term bias remain in place.
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W/C 24th November 2025
Rating: Sell
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Short-Term
🖼️ Weekly Chart
Bitcoin extended its decline last week, with price now reacting directly at the 100-week EMA, which aligns with the first major support zone highlighted in our previous updates. This is a critical juncture: the market is testing whether buyers have enough strength to defend the medium-term trend.
Momentum remains firmly negative. Both RSI and MACD continue to print bearish readings, showing no meaningful sign of reversal pressure yet.
From here, two scenarios dominate:
1️⃣ Short-Term Reversal (Less Probable – Needs Confirmation)
If buyers step in at the 100-week EMA, Bitcoin could stabilise and attempt to resume its broader uptrend. For this to hold weight, momentum needs to turn decisively positive, with a clean reclaim of prior structure and a break above $116,500.
2️⃣ Further Decline Toward Secondary Support (~$50,000)
If the current support fails, price is likely to retrace deeper toward the second support zone around $50,000, aligning with the 200/250-week EMA cluster. This remains the higher-probability scenario unless momentum shifts quickly.
For now, the trend remains to the downside and the technicals support maintaining a sell rating until market structure improves.
W/C 17th November 2025
Rating: Sell
Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: Short-Term
🖼️ Weekly Chart
Bitcoin has officially broken below its multi-month uptrend channel, signaling the end of the last bullish wave and the likely start of a higher-degree corrective phase.
With this structure shift, it’s prudent to move to the sidelines until the correction plays out more clearly.
🧭 Key Observations:
❌ Trend channel broken = structure invalidated
🔻 Momentum reversal suggests prior wave is complete
📉 A deeper pullback is now the primary expectation
📍 Support Zones to Watch:
$74,400 – Near the 100-week EMA and previous structural low
$49,200 – Major zone aligning with the 200- and 250-week EMAs
Until price action finds support and builds a new base, there’s no technical edge in chasing long setups here. The next opportunity may come after a volatility flush and reset of positioning.
W/C 10th November 2025
Rating: Hold
Bias: Bullish
Timeframe: Medium-Term
🖼️ Weekly Chart
🧠 Techincal Analysis
Price remains within an uptrend channel and is currently holding above the 50-week EMA, which has historically acted as dynamic support.
Volume declined during the recent rally, suggesting a slowdown in liquidity and market participation.
RSI momentum is weakening, which may signal that this leg of the uptrend is losing strength.
Price is now testing the 50-week EMA. A weekly close below this level would shift focus to lower support zones.
First watch zone: $94,000
If that fails: potential downside extension to $75,000
📍 Key Levels
Support: $98,000 · $94,000 · $75,000
Resistance: $116,700 · $126,000
✍️ Notes
Hold bias is justified as structure remains intact but momentum fades.
A break and close below the 50-week EMA would warrant a shift in stance to neutral or short-term bearish.
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