Market Update — 13th April 2026

John Nwatu MSTA CFTe
34 minutes ago
3 min read

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Highly Selective

The Big Picture

Ceasefire talks with Iran have broken down, and markets have opened the week accordingly. The VIX gapped higher over the weekend — a straightforward read that uncertainty has returned in force. Energy prices remain the central concern, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and the threat of supply disruption very much alive. Until there is some clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader picture stays risk-off. Most asset classes are on hold, and there is no compelling reason to be active across the board. Patience is the sensible approach this week.

Commodities — The Only Area Worth Watching

Equities and FX are offering little in the way of confirmed structure. Commodities are where the focus sits this week, and even here the picture is far from straightforward.

Aluminium

Aluminium looked like the standout setup — a continuation breakout with clean daily structure. On closer inspection, the Elliott Wave count on the one-hour chart suggests price may be in the fifth wave of the current impulse. The daily chart shows a well-defined five-wave advance from the December lows, with wave v now potentially completing around the 3,559 level. On the one-hour chart, the count labels waves iii and iv clearly, with the current push higher looking like an extended fifth. If that reading is correct, the bulk of the move has already occurred and the remaining upside does not justify the risk of entry at this stage. The trade is being passed on for now. The approach is to observe near-term price action and return to the setup once the wave structure offers greater clarity — whether that is a completed fifth wave followed by a corrective pullback, or a count invalidation that presents a fresher opportunity.

Crude Oil

Crude oil is developing a potential continuation breakout, and the broader trend does support further upside. The daily chart shows a clear impulsive advance from the 2026 lows, with price currently trading around $104 and the 21 EMA at $97.58 providing dynamic support. However, the one-hour chart tells a more cautious story — the current move from the April lows has the character of a corrective ABC structure rather than a fresh impulse, with wave b completing near the recent highs and the Fibonacci levels at 0.236 and 0.382 acting as the near-term battleground. The key level to watch is $95.70 — a sustained break below that would change the complexion of the trade meaningfully and could open the way for a move back towards $70. Further price action is needed before this warrants an entry. It remains on the watchlist.