Weekly Market Update: W/C 9th March 2026

Rating: Risk-Off with Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bias: Bearish Equities (Selective) / Cautious Bullish Oil & USD

Timeframe: Short-Term to Intermediate

Price movements remains dominated by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, now entering its second full week with no clear resolution in sight. Escalation persists: strikes have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure (refineries, storage sites in Tehran), Iran continues retaliatory drone/missile launches across Gulf states, and the Strait of Hormuz stays functionally disrupted with tanker traffic near standstill. Uncertainty over duration and global supply impact keeps markets in a classic fear-driven rotation—no quick de-escalation signals, no regime-change clarity from Washington.

🖼️Key Market Overview

Typical risk-off market behaviour is in play:

• Equities selling off across regions

• VIX spiking (fear gauge elevated)

• Oil and commodity prices rising sharply

• USD rising (safe-haven flows playing out)

No major reversal yet. Sentiment reflects uncertainty: the market is waiting for confirmation on conflict trajectory before committing aggressively.

Oil (CL), VIX (VX), USD (DX), US Equities (ES, NQ, RTY) and EuroStoxx50 (FESX)

Structure & Sentiment Read from an Elliott Wave perspective, the US equities sell-off appears corrective in nature and likely part of a larger wave-4 or A-B-C structure within the ongoing bull cycle. Trader sentiment is uncertain rather than outright bearish; many seem positioned to resume buying once clarity emerges or fear peaks. This suggests the downside may be limited unless the conflict materially worsens global growth.

European stocks tell a different story. The short-term sell-off looks more impulsive and aggressive, potentially completing a 5-wave structure from recent highs. This opens the door to a deeper correction or even a larger reversal especially given Europe's heavier exposure to energy disruption and regional spillover risks.

Oil prices have soared violently, making fresh entries challenging with poor risk/reward. Bias remains bullish on sustained supply fears, but discipline is essential: a clear pullback (ideally a 3-wave ABC correction) is required before engaging longs.

USD has rallied steadily, benefiting from flight-to-safety. However, the price structure also appears corrective. Upward momentum could extend if risk aversion deepens but watch for exhaustion if de-escalation headlines surface. A miss in employment data on Friday also seems to have dampened the dollars positive momentum.

Focus Markets & Bias

No high-conviction setups with strong RR as sentiment is fluid and headline-dependent. New daily highs/lows across key assets could trigger entries, but patience is the edge.

• European Equities (e.g., Euro Stoxx 50 context) More vulnerable structurally. Potential completed 5-wave decline sets up for deeper correction. Short bias possible on aggressive impulsive moves lower, but only with confirmation (e.g., failed rallies or volume-backed breakdowns). Europe's direct exposure to the conflict makes it the higher-risk region.

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• US Equities (broad context, e.g., S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq) Corrective sell-off suggests limited conviction in continuation lower. Sentiment extremes could cap downside. Avoid forcing shorts unless clear 5-wave impulse develops on lower timeframes. Better to wait for structure to clarify.

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• Oil Strong bullish bias intact, but soaring prices compress RR. Buy entry requires a clear pullback (3-wave correction preferred) for entry. Fundamentals support higher levels as long as Hormuz remains blocked; this remains the regime's momentum driver if timed properly.

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• USD Upward momentum holding on risk-off flows. Corrective structure cautions against blind longs. Watch sentiment and any Fed-path implications from data. Could grind higher if fear persists.

  
  

Key Levels to Watch

• Oil: Pullback zones for potential buy setups (fib retracements or prior breakout areas)

• Equities: Daily new lows/highs as triggers

• USD: Continuation above recent highs vs. corrective pullback risk

• Invalidation (risk-off unwind): Meaningful de-escalation + oil rollover + equity volume reversal