Published: 3rd November 2026 The Setup The decline in EUR/USD from this year's high looks corrective rather than the start of a new downtrend. I'm watching for a move to the upside, but I need confirmation before acting. What the Daily Chart Shows The bigger picture is a correction. The rally from the 2022 low unfolds in two five-wave legs, which looks like an ABC correction. Waves A and C are equal in length, which is typical of a correction. If that structure is complete, t

Regime: Mixed, in transition Key Market Moves US tech sold off. The Nasdaq fell over 5% in October. Alphabet dropped 12% in one day and Intel 28.6%. Markets are questioning whether AI spending will pay off. This is not full risk-off yet. The VIX was flat at 19.42 and credit spreads tightened to 326bp. Money is moving into energy and defensive stocks rather than leaving the market. Sterling is strong. The BoE is expected to raise rates on 5th November while the ECB held at 2.5

Macro Regime: Risk-On, but Fragile The Big Picture US stocks set records last week. The S&P 500 closed at 7,811 and the Dow at 51,655. Underneath that, things were weaker. The Russell 2000 was the only major US index to fall, down 0.91%. Spreads on the riskiest corporate debt (CCC-rated) widened to 12.0%, the highest since November 2022. Investor sentiment has also turned more bullish, so markets are no longer climbing against scepticism. The Fed is still in a hiking cycle at

Published: 24th September 2026 The Reassessment The initial bias on the dollar index was bearish, anticipating a move lower. Price has instead pushed higher and retraced to a point where that count is more likely wrong. Rather than force the original thesis, the read has been revised. The New Count Price action now looks like a complex correction rather than the start of a fresh downtrend. The structure suggests there is potentially one more wave to the upside, targeting the

Rating: Constructive But Cautious | Bias: Bullish Lean, Watching for Cracks Beneath the Surface The Big Picture The picture this week leans bullish, but there are enough underlying signals worth sitting with rather than ignoring. Liquidity is quietly declining, positioning across major equity indices looks increasingly one sided, and a strong jobs report may carry more nuance than the headline number suggests. None of this changes the near term bullish lean. It does mean th

Rating: Constructive, Medium Conviction | Bias: Selective · Watching for the Cracks to Widen The Big Picture Gold is the headline asset this week, rallying sharply on news of $40 trillion in US debt. That headline is not a single-week story, it is the latest and loudest expression of a structural theme that has been building for some time: diminishing confidence in the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency and growing questions about the sustainability of US sovereign

Rating: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Medium Conviction · Selective · Respect the Cracks The Big Picture The headline macro indicators are pointing toward risk-on this week. Liquidity is supportive, the dollar is weakening, carry trades are recovering, and financial system stress is well below average. On the surface the conditions for risk asset appreciation are in place. Look beneath the surface however and a more complicated picture emerges. Consumer credit stress is buil

Rating: Cautiously Risk-On | Bias: Trend and Momentum Led The Big Picture This week's technical picture tells a fairly clear story. The dollar and euro are both showing signs of weakness on the charts, whilst tech stocks continue to attract buying interest. The main setups in focus are two oil-linked currency pairs — EURNOK and USDCAD — where the trend and momentum structure look compelling. The Nasdaq 100 is also on the radar, though not yet offering a clean entry. One mac

Rating: Risk-Off with Geopolitical Uncertainty Bias: Bearish Equities (Selective) / Cautious Bullish Oil & USD Timeframe: Short-Term to Intermediate Price movements remains dominated by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, now entering its second full week with no clear resolution in sight. Escalation persists: strikes have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure (refineries, storage sites in Tehran), Iran continues retaliatory drone/missile launches across Gulf states, and

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: Fed cuts, DXY structure, and near-term outlook 🧭 Macro Signal: Fed move priced in — market unfazed 📉...

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: Bond yields, Fed rate policy, and technical structure 🧠 Macro Signal: Market is leaning toward a Fed cut...

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: CPI results, Fed rate expectations, and USD trajectory 🧭 Macro Signal: Fed cuts likely priced in, but...

🟦 Quick Overview 📈 Bias : Short-term Bearish → Medium-term Bullish 🎯 Signal : Watch for Reversal Zone Around $94 🧭 Why : Structure...