AUD/USD (AUDUSD) Short Trade Plan: Wave C Underway, Waiting for a Pullback
Published: 12th November 2026
The Setup
AUD/USD has broken below its previous lows, which put it on my radar. The structure points lower, but momentum is fading, so I'm waiting for a pullback before looking to sell.
What the Daily Chart Shows
A corrective downward channel. Price has been falling within a channel since April. This looks like an ABC correction, with wave C now underway.
Wave C is developing. Within wave C, I've identified five waves completing wave 1. Price may now be in wave 3.
Previous lows broken. Price has moved below the 0.6843 low, which confirms the downtrend is still active.
Momentum is waning. RSI is not confirming the new low with the same strength. This could mean price is completing the fifth wave of the current move, and a pullback could follow.
Low participation caveat. Yesterday was a US bank holiday (Veterans Day), so thin volume may explain the fading momentum rather than a genuine shift in sentiment.
Fundamental Context
The Fed–RBA gap is moving against the Aussie. The RBA raised rates to 4.85% on 3rd November, but in a split 6–3 vote that suggests it may be near the end of its hiking cycle. Meanwhile, hot US inflation has pushed December Fed hike odds to around 85%.
US inflation came in hot. October CPI rose 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected, with core at 0.3% against 0.2%.
Australian confidence is weak. Westpac consumer sentiment fell to 78.2, its lowest since late 2022.
Risk appetite matters. The Aussie tends to track global risk. A rebound in tech and equities could support it in the short term.
Trade Parameters
Status: Wait for confirmation. No action at this time.
Entry: short on continuation after a pullback, once price turns lower again.
Stop loss / invalidation: a daily close above 0.7070.
Target: if price breaks out of the bottom of the channel, the 1.618 extension near 0.6560, with potential for further downside.
Plan: the move beyond the channel depends largely on how hawkish the Fed remains.
Risk to the Trade
A daily close above 0.7070 invalidates the setup.
A soft US PPI on Friday or weak US retail sales on Tuesday 17th could lower Fed hike odds and support the Aussie.
RBA minutes on Tuesday 17th November could shift expectations if they sound more hawkish than the split vote suggested.
This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Always do your own analysis and manage your position size.
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