Macro Regime: Dollar-Supportive | Bias: Selective — Carry and Yield Themes in Focus The Big Picture Following the latest FOMC statement, markets are now pricing rates as likely to remain on hold at current levels, with only a small probability assigned to a further hike. That outcome is broadly dollar-supportive, and the technical and fundamental picture across several pairs this week is aligning in the same direction. Crude oil prices have fallen meaningfully, now trading ar

Macro Regime: Cautious | Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Confirmation The Big Picture Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report triggered a sell-off in US equities. Strong employment data, set against a backdrop of rising inflation, increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policy further, a combination that markets are currently pricing as negative for risk assets. The focus this week falls squarely on the Nasdaq. The AI narrative remains the domina

Macro Regime: Mixed | Bias: Regionally Selective The Big Picture Equity markets are telling a divided story this week. The picture is not uniformly risk-on or risk-off. It is regional, sector-driven, and increasingly sensitive to the macro data calendar ahead. US and Japanese equities continue to trend higher, supported by sustained momentum and persistent optimism around AI and semiconductor growth. That theme has shown resilience and continues to attract capital. However, t

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Bullish · Technically Led The Big Picture Positive news on the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has shifted the tone meaningfully this week. Equity markets gapped higher over the weekend reflecting that relief, and the broader cross-asset picture is confirming the move. The VIX has declined further and is holding below 20. That is the clearest real-time read on market fear, and right now it is saying risk appetite is in pl

Published: 22nd May 2026 Background EUR/NOK was identified in last week’s market report as a structural short opportunity. Norwegian krone strength underpinned by energy exposure and Norges Bank hawkishness, set against euro weakness driven by Eurozone underperformance and oil price sensitivity. The technical picture has now confirmed the setup. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed five-wave impulse to the downside followed by a three-wave corrective pullback.

Published: 21st May 2026 Background Last week’s market report identified the DAX as a potential short — the thesis being that rising oil prices, driven by Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, would weigh on European equities through higher energy costs. That hypothesis has not played out. Oil prices have declined, and European stocks have responded in the opposite direction, presenting a clear technical buy opportunity on the DAX. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed

Macro Regime: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Selective The Big Picture The risk-on regime that has characterised the past several weeks remains intact on the surface — US equities are holding their uptrend, the VIX continues to drift lower, and credit spreads remain tight. The broad tape has not broken. But a material shift in the macro backdrop warrants a more cautious read of the current environment. The latest CPI print has come in higher than expected, and the implications

Macro Regime: Risk-On The Big Picture Evidence for a risk-on sentiment has developed. VIX futures have been in decline over the last four to five weeks, whilst US equities and emerging markets have been trending up. This indicates genuine risk appetite, although it must be said that this is predominantly being driven by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq leading the broader market by a meaningful margin. The commodity complex tells the same story. Silver, copper and platinum are al

Rating: Cautiously Risk-On | Bias: Trend and Momentum Led The Big Picture This week's technical picture tells a fairly clear story. The dollar and euro are both showing signs of weakness on the charts, whilst tech stocks continue to attract buying interest. The main setups in focus are two oil-linked currency pairs — EURNOK and USDCAD — where the trend and momentum structure look compelling. The Nasdaq 100 is also on the radar, though not yet offering a clean entry. One mac

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: Fed cuts, DXY structure, and near-term outlook 🧭 Macro Signal: Fed move priced in — market unfazed 📉...

AUDJPY is showing promising strength across both the daily and weekly charts. Price remains in a clear upward trend trajectory, with the pair now threatening to break through recent highs which suggests a potential continuation of the larger bullish cycle.

The GBPCAD pair continues to move higher, but a closer look reveals that this rally may be more corrective than impulsive. GBPCAD Daily...

Trend GBPUSD Uptrend / Elliot Wave Count The GBPUSD is in a current uptrend which is confirmed by several trendlines all hitting 2...