Rating: Constructive Risk-On | Bias: Selective · Quality Setups Only The Big Picture The macro regime remains constructive. Surplus liquidity, tight credit spreads, and capital actively flowing into assets are the three pillars holding the risk-on read in place. The nuance this week is in the economic data beneath the surface. The labour market is quietly deteriorating in a way the headline figures do not fully reveal, consumer spending is being driven by inflation rather t

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Constructive · Awaiting Technical Confirmation The Big Picture Risk-on is the dominant trend. Several cross-asset signals are confirming that read, though a handful of questions remain open. No new positions until technical setups confirm. Russell 2000 — Outperforming Despite Hawkish Fed The Russell 2000 is rallying and outperforming the S&P 500 despite hawkish signals from Warsh. Small caps are the most rate-sensitive part of the US equi

Macro Regime: Cautious | Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Confirmation The Big Picture Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report triggered a sell-off in US equities. Strong employment data, set against a backdrop of rising inflation, increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policy further, a combination that markets are currently pricing as negative for risk assets. The focus this week falls squarely on the Nasdaq. The AI narrative remains the domina

Macro Regime: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Selective The Big Picture The risk-on regime that has characterised the past several weeks remains intact on the surface — US equities are holding their uptrend, the VIX continues to drift lower, and credit spreads remain tight. The broad tape has not broken. But a material shift in the macro backdrop warrants a more cautious read of the current environment. The latest CPI print has come in higher than expected, and the implications

Rating: Cautiously Risk-On | Bias: Trend and Momentum Led The Big Picture This week's technical picture tells a fairly clear story. The dollar and euro are both showing signs of weakness on the charts, whilst tech stocks continue to attract buying interest. The main setups in focus are two oil-linked currency pairs — EURNOK and USDCAD — where the trend and momentum structure look compelling. The Nasdaq 100 is also on the radar, though not yet offering a clean entry. One mac

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Market: US Dollar Index (DXY) 🧭 Bias: Neutral → Bearish (until proven otherwise) 📉 Structure: Corrective, choppy, range-bound ⚠️ Drivers: Upcoming inflation data + thinning holiday liquidity 🎯 Plan: Wait for range resolution before committing 🧠 Market Context: Uncertainty Dominates There is growing uncertainty around the US Dollar with inflation data due for release and the holiday season approaching , a period that often sees reduced market pa

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: Fed cuts, DXY structure, and near-term outlook 🧭 Macro Signal: Fed move priced in — market unfazed 📉...

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: Bond yields, Fed rate policy, and technical structure 🧠 Macro Signal: Market is leaning toward a Fed cut...

📦 Quick Overview 📊 Theme: CPI results, Fed rate expectations, and USD trajectory 🧭 Macro Signal: Fed cuts likely priced in, but...