Market Update — 13th April 2026

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Selective Longs Only

The Big Picture

The ceasefire talks with Iran have collapsed, and markets gapped into the week reflecting that reality. The VIX surged over the weekend — a clean signal that uncertainty is back in control. Energy prices remain the focal point, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and supply disruption risk firmly on the table. Until there is clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader market environment stays risk-off. Most asset classes are on hold. This is not a week to be forcing trades.

Commodities — Where the Action Is

With equities and FX offering little in the way of confirmed structure, commodities are carrying the playbook this week.

Aluminium was the headline setup — a continuation breakout with clean daily structure. However, drilling into the Elliott Wave count on the 1-hour chart suggests price may currently be tracing out a 5th wave of the impulse. If correct, the move is in its later stages and the remaining upside is likely limited relative to the risk being taken on. On that basis, the trade is being left alone for now. The plan is to monitor near-term price action and reassess once the wave structure provides more clarity — either a completed 5th wave followed by a corrective pullback, or invalidation of the count opening up a cleaner entry.

Crude oil is developing a potential continuation breakout setup and the overall trend remains in favour of further upside. That said, the current upward move is looking corrective in nature rather than impulsive, which limits conviction at this stage. The key level to watch is $95.70 — a break and close below that level would shift the picture materially and open the door to a decline back toward $70. Further price action is needed before an entry can be justified. This one stays on the watchlist until the structure confirms.

Setups in Focus

Aluminium — Long (Continuation) — Standing aside: 5th wave risk on 1H

Crude Oil — Long (Continuation) — Watchlist: confirmation required

What to Watch

• Aluminium 1H — watch for 5th wave completion and corrective pullback before reassessing long entry

• Crude $95.70 — the line in the sand; a break below opens a potential move back to $70

• Iran ceasefire developments — primary macro driver for energy and risk sentiment

• Strait of Hormuz updates — any escalation keeps crude bid

All other assets remain on hold pending a confirmed trend or trade setup. No views expressed here constitute financial advice.