Regime: Risk-off, but not acute Correction or Bear Market? Markets are either in a correction or at the start of a bear market. I lean towards a correction. Liquidity is healthy. M2 money supply is up 5.71% on the year. Credit is still flowing. Bank lending is rising, although standards are tighter. No major structural cracks. Without a liquidity squeeze or a lending freeze, I don't see the conditions for a sustained bear market yet. What could change my view: credit spreads

Regime: Mixed, in transition Key Market Moves US tech sold off. The Nasdaq fell over 5% in October. Alphabet dropped 12% in one day and Intel 28.6%. Markets are questioning whether AI spending will pay off. This is not full risk-off yet. The VIX was flat at 19.42 and credit spreads tightened to 326bp. Money is moving into energy and defensive stocks rather than leaving the market. Sterling is strong. The BoE is expected to raise rates on 5th November while the ECB held at 2.5

Published: 22nd October 2026 The Setup The Nasdaq 100 may have completed its rally. The Elliott Wave count shows five waves to the upside, which can mark the end of a trend. What the Daily Chart Shows Five waves complete. The advance from the April low has five clear waves, with wave 5 peaking in early October. Momentum divergence. Price made a higher high in October, but the ROC indicator made a lower high. Momentum is weakening as price rises, which often comes before a rev

Credit is leading equity. Short RTY and short Nasdaq on the rising cost of credit, with a dollar short forming but not yet triggered.

Macro Regime: Risk-On, but Fragile The Big Picture US stocks set records last week. The S&P 500 closed at 7,811 and the Dow at 51,655. Underneath that, things were weaker. The Russell 2000 was the only major US index to fall, down 0.91%. Spreads on the riskiest corporate debt (CCC-rated) widened to 12.0%, the highest since November 2022. Investor sentiment has also turned more bullish, so markets are no longer climbing against scepticism. The Fed is still in a hiking cycle at

Published: 7th October 2026 The Situation With Copper Copper looks set to fall. The supply shortage that drove prices up is easing, demand from China is weak, and the chart suggests the rally is running out of steam. Waiting for confirmation before entering. Why Copper Could Fall 1. The supply squeeze is fading. For months, physical copper was scarce, which pushed prices up. That scarcity is now easing fast. A key market signal (the gap between today’s price and the three-mon

Macro Regime: Dollar-Supportive | Bias: Selective — Carry and Yield Themes in Focus The Big Picture Following the latest FOMC statement, markets are now pricing rates as likely to remain on hold at current levels, with only a small probability assigned to a further hike. That outcome is broadly dollar-supportive, and the technical and fundamental picture across several pairs this week is aligning in the same direction. Crude oil prices have fallen meaningfully, now trading ar

Macro Regime: Cautious | Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Confirmation The Big Picture Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report triggered a sell-off in US equities. Strong employment data, set against a backdrop of rising inflation, increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policy further, a combination that markets are currently pricing as negative for risk assets. The focus this week falls squarely on the Nasdaq. The AI narrative remains the domina

Macro Regime: Mixed | Bias: Regionally Selective The Big Picture Equity markets are telling a divided story this week. The picture is not uniformly risk-on or risk-off. It is regional, sector-driven, and increasingly sensitive to the macro data calendar ahead. US and Japanese equities continue to trend higher, supported by sustained momentum and persistent optimism around AI and semiconductor growth. That theme has shown resilience and continues to attract capital. However, t

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Bullish · Technically Led The Big Picture Positive news on the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has shifted the tone meaningfully this week. Equity markets gapped higher over the weekend reflecting that relief, and the broader cross-asset picture is confirming the move. The VIX has declined further and is holding below 20. That is the clearest real-time read on market fear, and right now it is saying risk appetite is in pl

Published: 22nd May 2026 Background EUR/NOK was identified in last week’s market report as a structural short opportunity. Norwegian krone strength underpinned by energy exposure and Norges Bank hawkishness, set against euro weakness driven by Eurozone underperformance and oil price sensitivity. The technical picture has now confirmed the setup. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed five-wave impulse to the downside followed by a three-wave corrective pullback.

Published: 21st May 2026 Background Last week’s market report identified the DAX as a potential short — the thesis being that rising oil prices, driven by Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, would weigh on European equities through higher energy costs. That hypothesis has not played out. Oil prices have declined, and European stocks have responded in the opposite direction, presenting a clear technical buy opportunity on the DAX. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed

Macro Regime: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Selective The Big Picture The risk-on regime that has characterised the past several weeks remains intact on the surface — US equities are holding their uptrend, the VIX continues to drift lower, and credit spreads remain tight. The broad tape has not broken. But a material shift in the macro backdrop warrants a more cautious read of the current environment. The latest CPI print has come in higher than expected, and the implications

Macro Regime: Risk-On The Big Picture Evidence for a risk-on sentiment has developed. VIX futures have been in decline over the last four to five weeks, whilst US equities and emerging markets have been trending up. This indicates genuine risk appetite, although it must be said that this is predominantly being driven by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq leading the broader market by a meaningful margin. The commodity complex tells the same story. Silver, copper and platinum are al

Rating: Risk-Off | Bias: Cautious · Selective Longs Only The Big Picture The ceasefire talks with Iran have collapsed, and markets gapped into the week reflecting that reality. The VIX surged over the weekend — a clean signal that uncertainty is back in control. Energy prices remain the focal point, with the Strait of Hormuz situation unresolved and supply disruption risk firmly on the table. Until there is clarity on the geopolitical front, the broader market environment sta

Rating: Risk-Off with Geopolitical Uncertainty Bias: Bearish Equities (Selective) / Cautious Bullish Oil & USD Timeframe: Short-Term to Intermediate Price movements remains dominated by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, now entering its second full week with no clear resolution in sight. Escalation persists: strikes have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure (refineries, storage sites in Tehran), Iran continues retaliatory drone/missile launches across Gulf states, and

AUDJPY is showing promising strength across both the daily and weekly charts. Price remains in a clear upward trend trajectory, with the pair now threatening to break through recent highs which suggests a potential continuation of the larger bullish cycle.