Trade Opportunity — EUR/NOK Short
- John Nwatu MSTA CFTe
- May 22
- 1 min read
Published: 22nd May 2026
Background
EUR/NOK was identified in last week’s market report as a structural short opportunity. Norwegian krone strength underpinned by energy exposure and Norges Bank hawkishness, set against euro weakness driven by Eurozone underperformance and oil price sensitivity. The technical picture has now confirmed the setup.
The Technical Case
The daily chart shows a completed five-wave impulse to the downside followed by a three-wave corrective pullback. A classic Elliott Wave continuation structure indicating the primary downtrend is potentially resuming. Price is below both the 20 and 50-day EMAs, new lows are being established, and there is no RSI divergence present to suggest the move is losing momentum. The trend and momentum criteria are satisfied.
Trade Parameters
Entry: 10.72
Stop loss: 10.7950, the origin of the fresh wave to the downside. A close above this level invalidates the trade hypothesis.
Target: To be confirmed as price develops.
Risk to the Trade
The primary risk remains the geopolitical backdrop. Any meaningful de-escalation in the Iran/US situation that pulls oil prices lower could reduce the NOK’s energy-driven advantage and potentially trigger a reversal. The stop at 10.7950 is hard. If price closes above that level the position is exited without discretion.
This is not financial advice. All trades carry risk. Always conduct your own analysis and manage position sizing appropriately.
Comments