Weekly Market Review — W/C 10th August 2026: Gold, Silver and Copper in Focus

Rating: Constructive Risk-On | Bias: Selective · Quality Setups Only

The Big Picture

The macro regime remains constructive. Surplus liquidity, tight credit spreads, and capital actively flowing into assets are the three pillars holding the risk-on read in place.

The nuance this week is in the economic data beneath the surface. The labour market is quietly deteriorating in a way the headline figures do not fully reveal, consumer spending is being driven by inflation rather than genuine demand growth, and the Fed faces a policy decision that could cut either way. None of this changes the regime read, but it does demand selectivity in which assets and sectors are targeted.

Existing Positions — FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Long

The S&P 500 holding remains fully supported. Surplus liquidity and tight credit spreads provide the primary macro foundation; the conditions for sustained equity appreciation are in place. Adding further support, US consumer spending is showing genuine real volume growth. Nominal spending is up 6.7% against CPI of 3.5%, giving a real increase of approximately 3.2%. The macro case for holding this position is intact on both counts.

The FTSE 100 position is being moved to cautious. Several conflicting forces are preventing the index from trending cleanly in either direction. On the positive side, corporate earnings have been strong and the global risk-on backdrop provides support given the FTSE's international revenue base.

On the negative side, the oil price decline this week dragged directly on BP and Shell, which together account for roughly a tenth of the index and the AstraZeneca sell-off of approximately 6.7% acted as a significant stock-specific drag. The Bank of England's 6-3 hold, which failed to deliver the dovish tone markets had hoped for, added a further headwind.

With these forces pulling in opposite directions, the index lacks the clean directional momentum needed to hold the position with confidence. The trade remains open for now but is under active review. A confirmed break below the current price range to the downside would be the trigger to close the position. Price action and the oil situation are the two variables to watch closely.

Labour Market — Weaker Than the Headline Suggests

Non-farm payrolls came in negative this week — fewer jobs in the economy than the prior period. Yet the headline unemployment rate fell. These two data points appear contradictory until you look at the participation rate. The unemployment rate is declining for the wrong reason: people are not finding work and have decided to stop looking entirely. When workers exit the labour force they are no longer counted as unemployed, which mechanically reduces the headline rate without any genuine improvement in conditions.

This matters for two reasons. First, the labour market is quietly deteriorating beneath a surface figure that looks constructive. Second, student debt delinquencies have spiked which indicates an elevated debt stress among younger borrowers and may be a signal of emerging consumer strain.

The Consumer — Real Spending Growth

Nominal spending is up 6.7% with CPI running at 3.5%, giving real spending growth of approximately 3.2%. Consumers are spending more in real terms which is a genuine volume growth. The consumer backdrop is constructive and adds a further layer of support to the risk-on thesis. That said, the labour market deterioration and student debt stress noted above are worth monitoring as potential leading indicators of consumer strain further down the line. For now the spending data is positive, but it warrants watching alongside the labour market picture as the two could diverge.

The Fed — Hold Is the Most Likely Outcome

Market probabilities are weighing between a hold and a hike. The case for a hike exists — inflation remains above target and spending is nominally elevated. But the negative NFP print and the deteriorating labour market give the Fed cover to hold. The Fed’s dual mandate covers both inflation and employment, and with payrolls negative and participation falling, the employment side of that mandate argues firmly against tightening further at this juncture. A hold is the base case and is broadly constructive for risk assets and removes the most direct near-term headwind for gold and silver specifically.

Positions in Focus

Gold — Buy

The primary catalyst is the Fed hold. A pause on interest rate hikes softens the real yield pressure that has been acting as a headwind for gold. With the dollar losing ground against EM currencies and surplus liquidity providing a broad tailwind for asset prices, the conditions for gold to move higher are aligning.

Bias: Buy · Catalyst: Fed hold, USD weakness, surplus liquidity · Risk: Surprise rate hike

Silver — Buy

Silver is being driven by two forces this week and both are pointing in the same direction. On the precious metal side, a Fed hold softens real yields — the same tailwind as gold. On the industrial side, surplus liquidity and capital flowing actively into risk assets supports manufacturing and industrial demand, of which silver is a direct beneficiary through solar, electronics, and EV applications. When both the precious metal and industrial drivers align simultaneously, silver tends to outperform gold. That is the setup this week.

Bias: Buy · Catalyst: Fed hold on precious metal side, surplus liquidity and risk-on flows on industrial side · Risk: Rate hike, industrial slowdown

USDZAR / USDMXN — Sell

The dollar has been losing ground against emerging market currencies. Both the South African rand and the Mexican peso carry meaningful yield advantages over the dollar in the current environment, and with the Fed most likely holding rather than hiking, that differential is not narrowing any time soon. Capital continues to rotate toward higher-yielding EM currencies as the risk-on regime persists.

Bias: Sell USD · Catalyst: Rate differential, USD-EM weakness confirmed in composite · Risk: Fed hike, EM risk-off

Copper — Buy

Copper is the cleanest expression of the global growth signal within the metals complex this week. Surplus liquidity is the primary support — when capital is abundant and actively flowing into assets, industrial metals benefit directly. Money flowing into risk assets alongside a constructive credit environment points to expanding economic activity, and copper is the metal that reflects that most immediately.

Bias: Buy · Catalyst: Surplus liquidity, capital flows, risk-on composite · Risk: Liquidity reversal, China slowdown

What to Watch

Fed decision and language — a hold confirms the base case and supports gold, silver and EM currencies. Any shift toward hike probability reverses the metals thesis quickly

NFP and participation rate — continued deterioration strengthens the hold case but introduces longer-term risk to consumer-exposed equity positions

Real spending data — if nominal spending growth continues to outpace real growth, consumer sector earnings pressure builds. Monitor FTSE 100 and S&P 500 sector composition within existing positions

USD-EM direction — continued dollar weakness against EM confirms the USDZAR and USDMXN thesis. Any reversal warrants reassessment

Silver vs gold relative performance — when both precious and industrial drivers are aligned, silver tends to outperform gold. Watch the gold/silver ratio for confirmation

These are my views based on my own analysis at the time of writing. Nothing here is financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.