Rating: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Medium Conviction · Selective · Respect the Cracks The Big Picture The headline macro indicators are pointing toward risk-on this week. Liquidity is supportive, the dollar is weakening, carry trades are recovering, and financial system stress is well below average. On the surface the conditions for risk asset appreciation are in place. Look beneath the surface however and a more complicated picture emerges. Consumer credit stress is buil

Rating: Constructive Risk-On | Bias: Selective · Quality Setups Only The Big Picture The macro regime remains constructive. Surplus liquidity, tight credit spreads, and capital actively flowing into assets are the three pillars holding the risk-on read in place. The nuance this week is in the economic data beneath the surface. The labour market is quietly deteriorating in a way the headline figures do not fully reveal, consumer spending is being driven by inflation rather t

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Constructive · Awaiting Technical Confirmation The Big Picture Risk-on is the dominant trend. Several cross-asset signals are confirming that read, though a handful of questions remain open. No new positions until technical setups confirm. Russell 2000 — Outperforming Despite Hawkish Fed The Russell 2000 is rallying and outperforming the S&P 500 despite hawkish signals from Warsh. Small caps are the most rate-sensitive part of the US equi

Macro Regime: Cautious | Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Confirmation The Big Picture Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report triggered a sell-off in US equities. Strong employment data, set against a backdrop of rising inflation, increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policy further, a combination that markets are currently pricing as negative for risk assets. The focus this week falls squarely on the Nasdaq. The AI narrative remains the domina

Macro Regime: Mixed | Bias: Regionally Selective The Big Picture Equity markets are telling a divided story this week. The picture is not uniformly risk-on or risk-off. It is regional, sector-driven, and increasingly sensitive to the macro data calendar ahead. US and Japanese equities continue to trend higher, supported by sustained momentum and persistent optimism around AI and semiconductor growth. That theme has shown resilience and continues to attract capital. However, t

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selectively Bullish · Technically Led The Big Picture Positive news on the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has shifted the tone meaningfully this week. Equity markets gapped higher over the weekend reflecting that relief, and the broader cross-asset picture is confirming the move. The VIX has declined further and is holding below 20. That is the clearest real-time read on market fear, and right now it is saying risk appetite is in pl

Published: 21st May 2026 Background Last week’s market report identified the DAX as a potential short — the thesis being that rising oil prices, driven by Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, would weigh on European equities through higher energy costs. That hypothesis has not played out. Oil prices have declined, and European stocks have responded in the opposite direction, presenting a clear technical buy opportunity on the DAX. The Technical Case The daily chart shows a completed

Macro Regime: Risk-On with Caution | Bias: Selective The Big Picture The risk-on regime that has characterised the past several weeks remains intact on the surface — US equities are holding their uptrend, the VIX continues to drift lower, and credit spreads remain tight. The broad tape has not broken. But a material shift in the macro backdrop warrants a more cautious read of the current environment. The latest CPI print has come in higher than expected, and the implications

Macro Regime: Risk-On The Big Picture Evidence for a risk-on sentiment has developed. VIX futures have been in decline over the last four to five weeks, whilst US equities and emerging markets have been trending up. This indicates genuine risk appetite, although it must be said that this is predominantly being driven by tech stocks, with the Nasdaq leading the broader market by a meaningful margin. The commodity complex tells the same story. Silver, copper and platinum are al

Rating: Cautiously Risk-On | Bias: Trend and Momentum Led The Big Picture This week's technical picture tells a fairly clear story. The dollar and euro are both showing signs of weakness on the charts, whilst tech stocks continue to attract buying interest. The main setups in focus are two oil-linked currency pairs — EURNOK and USDCAD — where the trend and momentum structure look compelling. The Nasdaq 100 is also on the radar, though not yet offering a clean entry. One mac

Rating: Risk-Off with Geopolitical Uncertainty Bias: Bearish Equities (Selective) / Cautious Bullish Oil & USD Timeframe: Short-Term to Intermediate Price movements remains dominated by the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, now entering its second full week with no clear resolution in sight. Escalation persists: strikes have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure (refineries, storage sites in Tehran), Iran continues retaliatory drone/missile launches across Gulf states, and

📊 Theme: Strong price action, but short-term signals suggest caution 🧭 Trend Status: Bullish 📉 Signals to Watch: Divergence + falling open interest = possible stall 🧠 Wave Structure: 5th wave of the 3rd leg approaching completion SP500 - Daily Chart Market Snapshot: Price is Rising, But Participation Weak The S&P 500 continues to show clear bullish strength , with price action holding firmly above both the 60-day and 250-day EMAs . From a trend-following persp

📦 Quick Overview 📈 Bias: Neutral to Bearish (short-term) 🎯 Signal: Watch Only 🧭 Why: Likely completed a 5-wave advance — expecting...

Weekly Chart The SOXX (semiconductor) ETF chart has been in a bullish trend for some time now. The last rally started in October 2022 up...

Weekly Chart The ARKW ETF chart is looking bullish from a technical analysis perspective. Price is above all EMA lines (50, 100, 200 and 250 weeks) and backed with a consistent trendline which is acting as a reliable support. Price recently bounced from the 200 and 250 week EMA lines which also coincided with the 50% retracement of the identified Elliot Wave 5 wave impulse which is considered to be extremely bullish likely to lead to further upside. Based on the present infor

The FTSE 100 recently retested previous all time highs (ATH) and looks set to continue on its bull run. The analysis presents 2 potential price action routes which indicates that price could hit £9,000 and reverse or if backed with sound fundamentals we could see price extending out to £10,000. The below outlines the findings and evidence from the chart analysis. Chart Analysis Trend All trendlines and channels look bullish for the FTSE 100 with price is also well above the 6