Weekly Market Review — W/C 13th July 2026: USD, Risk-On & Bitcoin in Focus

Rating: Risk-On | Bias: Selective · Technically Led

The Big Picture

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions this week. The Iran conflict has re-escalated, oil prices have spiked, and rate hike speculation is back on the table — all of which are fundamentally supportive of the dollar. At the same time, the VIX is declining, equities are breaking out, Bitcoin is gaining momentum, and risk-on FX themes are activating. The weight of evidence sits with the risk-on read. The USD story is real but not yet confirmed in price — and until the chart agrees, it stays off the trade list.

USD — Fundamental Case Present, Technical Confirmation Absent

The re-escalation of the Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher and reignited speculation around a potential interest rate hike. Both are dollar-supportive in theory — higher oil feeds inflation, sticky inflation keeps the Fed hawkish, hawkish Fed supports the dollar.

The chart is not confirming it yet. USD is ranging, not trending. No technical setup has developed. The fundamental case is noted and monitored, but there is no trade here until price action agrees. Watching for a breakout from the current range before reassessing.

DXY - Daily Chart

Equities — Risk-On Confirmed

The VIX continues to decline — the clearest real-time read on market fear, and right now it is not reading fear. The S&P 500 is breaking out of a triangle and pennant pattern on the chart. When a volatility decline and a technical breakout occur simultaneously, that is a genuine risk-on signal rather than a single data point in isolation. Equities are the primary confirmation of the regime this week.

SP500 (ES) - Daily Chart

Bitcoin — Momentum Building, Positioning Supportive

Bitcoin is gaining momentum and the COT data on the standard contract supports the move. Large speculative money on the CME standard Bitcoin contract is net long — 16,073 long versus 12,573 short as of 7th July. Open interest is building rather than declining. The informed, larger-position participants are positioned for higher prices.

The Micro Bitcoin contract which reflects a more retail participant base shows the opposite: net short speculators and declining open interest. That divergence is a secondary confirmation. When large money is long and retail is short on the same asset, the larger money tends to be right.

Momentum and positioning are aligned. Bitcoin is on the radar this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) - Daily Chart

What to Watch

USD range boundaries — a confirmed breakout from the current range with technical follow-through changes the picture materially. Iran developments and CPI data are the catalysts to watch

S&P 500 breakout — needs to hold above the triangle resistance on a closing basis. A false break would be a warning signal for the risk-on thesis

Bitcoin — watching for momentum continuation. COT positioning is supportive but concentration of longs in a small number of large traders means any large-scale exit creates fast downside

Oil prices — the transmission mechanism between Iran escalation and USD/rate expectations. The speed and scale of the oil move will determine how seriously the market prices a rate hike

These are my views based on my own analysis at the time of writing. Nothing here is financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.