Weekly Market Report — W/C 8th June 2026
Macro Regime: Cautious | Bias: Neutral — Waiting for Confirmation
The Big Picture
Last week’s better-than-expected jobs report triggered a sell-off in US equities. Strong employment data, set against a backdrop of rising inflation, increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening policy further, a combination that markets are currently pricing as negative for risk assets.
The focus this week falls squarely on the Nasdaq. The AI narrative remains the dominant driver of US equity performance, and how price responds to the macro data flow will be the tell for the next directional move.
Wednesday’s CPI release is the most significant data point of the week. The base case is that rates remain unchanged. It would likely take a very strong inflation print to shift the Fed meaningfully in a hawkish direction, particularly given that Kevin Warsh’s appointment by President Trump introduces a degree of political pressure to hold. The Fed’s credibility may be tested if inflation data forces a decision that conflicts with that backdrop.
One important consideration worth keeping front of mind: the broader liquidity picture is not flashing warning signs. Bank lending, debt obligations, retail spending and employment data are not signalling economic deterioration at this stage. The conditions that typically precede a sustained market reversal are not yet in place. The overall trend remains up, and shorting the market at this point is not on the agenda.
Nasdaq 100 — Neutral | Waiting for Confirmation
Price is clearly in a corrective phase. From a technical standpoint, there is a possibility that price tests the 50-day EMA before any recovery. Until a clearer entry setup presents itself, the position is to stand aside.
Two scenarios are being monitored. A close above the recent high at 30,807 triggers a long entry. That level represents the confirmation that the correction is complete and the uptrend is potentially resuming.
Alternatively, if price closes below the 50-day EMA and a clear impulsive move to the downside develops, short trades may be considered. That scenario would require a meaningful shift in the technical structure and would only be acted on with confirmation.
Bias: Neutral · Long trigger: Close above 30,807 · Short consideration: Close below 50-day EMA with impulsive structure · Sidelines until confirmation
What to Watch
Wednesday CPI release. The primary macro event of the week. A stronger-than-expected print may increase the probability of a rate hike and is likely to weigh on equities further. An inline or soft print could provide the catalyst for a recovery
Fed credibility. The intersection of political pressure and inflation data makes this a potentially volatile period for rate expectations. Market reaction to Fed commentary may be outsized relative to the data itself
Nasdaq 30,807. The key level to the upside. A close above triggers the long entry
Nasdaq 50-day EMA. The level to watch to the downside. A close below with an impulsive structure opens the door to short consideration
Liquidity indicators. Bank lending, retail spending and employment data remain stable. No red flags at this stage but worth monitoring as the rate narrative develops
These are my views based on my own technical analysis at the time of writing. Nothing here is financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
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